Utterly Defeated

This is not going to be pleasant.  It’s going to be my much needed self-defeating whining session before I resort to doing something physically destructive.

The EU Sovereign meeting finally came out with a definitive decision on the Greece bail out plan last night.  I had thought the market had discounted most of it already.  Especially given that several prior rumors about the meeting didn’t really shake up the market too much, it should be a sell-the-news day.  I was dead wrong.  Instead, it was a gap up and run day — a massacre on the bears, blood on the streets beyond belief.  In hindsight, the candle that I absolutely hated to see yesterday foretold today’s massive rally.  The news was leaked and this game is rigged.

I resent the jinx that follows me every step of the way.  I’ve switched from one system to another.   All the same outcome:  as soon as I started following the system, the system stopped working.   Whenever a system works, I don’t follow it UNTIL when it is proven under my scrutiny;  then as soon as I make up my mind to follow it, it stops working.

I’ve never lost so much money in such a short period of the time.  SPY is up nearly 20% so far in October — the best month since 1974, and I’m in the middle of it, shorting the whole time.  No, I’m triple short via SPXU!   How much more wrong can I be?   Am I a fool?  Not at all.   I hold masters degree from an Ivy League school. I started and sold a software company.   As far as investing and trading, I’ve tried everything while being pragmatic.   But I simply ended up losing, big.

In trading, you can blame on technical errors and money management and what have you; but the latest system isn’t even trading.  It’s just 1 signal since May and that is sell.   In trading, you can say I lack patience.  So here I’ve practiced patience — put on the bear hat for months and still it is not paying off.  Right now it’s simply a matter of mustering up enough courage to pull the plug and admit that I simply can’t shake off that jinx!

Presidential cycle, Santa rally around the corner, RSI at a healthy 65 level, no negative divergence in MACD, and my long time trust worthy $BPCOMPX pointing straight up — it’s blue sky above.  Buy, buy, buy!

Portfolio Value: $119,700

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7 Responses to Utterly Defeated

  1. padysrini says:

    Why dont you use an SL ?

    • This system does NOT have a SL. Will have to wait for trend change. I know some would say I should have my own SL, but in the past, that’s how I got shaken out of positions with big regrets. It’s silly I know but I’m fighting against some nasty jinx.

      • padysrini says:

        I completely understand. I am backtesting a few systems and see SLs as a double edged sword. One system I like is to cover half at a certain profit level. I have realized that SLs have to be at important support/resistances/MAs – however far or close they are from entry point. That is unfortunate.

  2. padysrini says:

    BTW, about the masters degree note, I hold similar credentials. But have failed in trading. So being over analytical doesnt help at all. Lots of instinct comes into play. Other thing I notice is nimbleness. Just cannot be stubborn. Once we get educated a lot ( especially sciences ), we tend to believe mathematical arguments. And TA is really math in some sense. I feel trading is more than that – it involves emotions of a lot of people. So nowadays one thing I remind myself constantly is “i will take the side of the trend only”. Not bull, not bear.

    • I agree being analytical and/or logical minded can hurt trading. If I remember correctly, the old software programmer in the UK’s Million Dollar Traders TV show a few years back was one of the first to be ousted. But I’ve been using problem solving skills not directly to trading itself, but to the choosing of the various styles of approaches to trading a la trials and error. I also agree emotion and psychology are big parst, if not the main factors, in trading. But the latest iteration of my approach to trading has been to leave TA and emotion out of the equation, and approach from long term swing instead of daytrading. And it appears to be leading no where either.

  3. padysrini says:

    BTW, is this trend system proprietary ? Care to share ?

    • It is proprietary and at this point I’ve been forbidden to share about it. That may change in the future. But I can tell you we’re talking about minimally 2-3 month of holding the same positions. This is very unlike my natural style of trading. I need constant actions. But I’ve deprived my natural self in an attempt to shake off the jinx that’s followed my all of my investing life. And here we are.

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