My nightmare came true today – actually worse than I could imagine. After being fooled by the market in the previous session, the market never looked back with SPY up a whopping 2.90% for the day. The buying was relentless, making the day excruciatingly painful. Even though I think the market will eventually correct, but the mere fact that it will now take a while before my portfolio value get back to what it was last week puts me into mental abyss.
It is defeating that I am out of sync with the market all too often. When I wanted to short on the way down during the July, the market never bounced to give me a good entry point. When the market bounced in early August, I only accumulated a small fraction of my intended position before it “prematurely” crashed back down. As the market retested the July low, I was afraid to take profit fearing the market would make new lows. Now that I was tricked to double my position, the market made up its mind to go back up for real.
I’m now more than 60% short having added today on testing the August high. My portfolio was down some $6,000 today, making an all time low. And by any measure, the market is now targeting higher. Take your pick: the 50% Fib line, the pattern projection (blue rectangle), the 50 EMA, or the neck line / 200 EMA. It’s quite depressing.
Portfolio Value: $125,000