Back in February I was convinced of the bull case as per my blog on the presidential cycle, and I was hoping to be able to buy on dip. Well, despite oil > $100, pro-democracy uprising and rioting in Egype and Libya, and other bad news, the market refuse to give way. Finally, the March 11 Japanese earthquake and tsunami finally put a big den on the market. By then I was buying on dip and at the bottom I was merely 50% in. But I had no idea how the Japanese disaster, with Japan representing the world’s 3rd biggest economy, would impact the stock market. I feared it may be the black swan event that would trump everything else. Then there was the awareness that QE2 is ending in June and I had no idea at what point the market would discount that in. In short, I wasn’t comfortable sitting on long positions. As a result, I started selling as the stock market started to rebound, and I was all out of my core longs (a la SPY and UPRO) when the bounce was only half way done (to date). Had I held on to my plan and not to be influenced by the news, I’d be much happier today with my stock portfolio.